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☆ Trump’s first trial, Ukraine aid and other surprises from a major news week
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-20 | by ( Zachary B. Wolf | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

House Speaker Mike Johnson arrives to speak with reporters to discuss his proposal of sending aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan on April 17, 2024. Johnson, although a bona fide conservative and a skeptic at times of Ukraine aid, is finally on the cusp of getting the vote done in the House. This week, Iran responded to Israel’s strike on a Syrian diplomatic facility with its own strikes, which Israel responded to on Friday with a strike on Iran. Joe Biden is running hardWith all the Trump trial coverage, you might have missed that President Joe Biden is running a spirited presidential campaign. While Trump is spending most days at his trial, Biden is going all over the map.

Persons: Trump’s, you’ve, Donald Trump, Trump, Mike Johnson’s, Marjorie Taylor Greene, Thomas Massie of Kentucky, Paul Gosar, Arizona –, Johnson, Mike Johnson, J, Scott Applewhite, he’ll, It’s, Israel, Here’s Tamara Qiblawi, CNN’s Nic Robertson, Read, Joe Biden, Biden, Andrew CAballero, Reynolds, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: CNN, Trump, –, GOP, White, Getty, Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve Locations: Antarctica, New York, Ukraine, Israel, Taiwan, Johnson, Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Arizona, Iran, Syrian, CNN’s, Damascus, Qiblawi, Philadelphia, Wawa, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, AFP, Europe

☆ What stalled this year’s seemingly infallible stock market rally
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-19 | by ( Krystal Hur | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +7 min

Investors had hoped that corporate earnings would help revive the stalled rally, but a strong start to the season hasn’t been enough to excite investors. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.10% in the week ending April 18, up from 6.88% the previous week, according to Freddie Mac data released Thursday. Mortgage rates are climbing based on expectations that the Federal Reserve won’t cut interest rates anytime soon. The Fed doesn’t directly set mortgage rates, but its actions do influence them, and persistently hot inflation readings are keeping the Fed on hold. If inflation stalls any further, or even worsens, mortgage rates could climb higher this year.

Persons: —, hasn’t, Jerome Powell, “, ”, Michael Landsberg, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Israel, Brent, Bryan Mena, Freddie Mac, Sam Khater, Freddie Mac’s, Read, Anna Cooban, Tim Cook, Pham Minh Chinh, Cook, Apple “ Organizations: CNN Business, Bell, New York CNN, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, Federal Reserve, Data, Employers, Fed, Landsberg Bennett, Wealth Management, Monetary Fund, Treasury, Investors, CNN, Federal, China Apple, Vietnamese, Apple Locations: New York, East, Iran, Israel, Syria, Vietnam, China, Hanoi, Beijing

☆ Risk of a global recession is minimal, IMF economist says — would take 'a lot to derail'
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

"When we do the risk assessment around that baseline, the chances that we would have something like a global recession is fairly minimal. The Washington DC-based institute this week nudged its global growth outlook slightly higher to 3.2% in 2024 and projects the same rate in 2025. One of the International Monetary Fund's top economists signals little risk of a global recession, despite the ongoing rumblings of geopolitical uncertainty. That has all combined with the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, which had its biggest wider impact on energy prices in Europe in 2022. And that's one of the big risks that we do see, the implications that could have for oil prices could be substantial.

Persons: Gourinchas, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Karen Tso, Gita Gopinath, we're Organizations: U.S, IMF, Washington DC, International Monetary, Palestinian, Hamas, CNBC Locations: Europe, New York, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Belgium, Gaza, Red, Yemeni, Russia, Ukraine, Asia, Israel, Iran

☆ America’s debt problem could spell higher interest rates in the rest of the world
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-17 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +5 min

The IMF said Wednesday that increased government spending, growing public debt and elevated interest rates in the United States had contributed to high and volatile yields — or interest rates — on Treasuries, raising the risk of higher rates elsewhere. “Loose fiscal policy in the United States exerts upward pressure on global interest rates and the dollar,” Vitor Gaspar, director of the IMF’s fiscal affairs department, told reporters. Higher interest rates make it more costly for households and businesses to service their loans, which can lead to defaults that cause losses at banks and other lenders, increasing financial instability. That means that even if the Fed cuts interest rates later this year — the IMF’s central scenario — US government funding costs may not fall by the same margin, he added. The IMF expects US public debt to continue rising, helping drive government debt worldwide to close to 100% of global gross domestic product by 2029, from 93% last year.

Persons: ” Vitor Gaspar, ”, Jerome Powell, ” Tobias Adrian, Gaspar, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, That’s Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, Treasury, US, Federal Locations: United States, Washington

☆ IMF upgrades global growth forecast as economy proves 'surprisingly resilient' despite downside risks
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Karen Gilchrist | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday slightly raised its global growth forecast, saying the economy had proven "surprisingly resilient" despite inflationary pressures and monetary policy shifts. The IMF now expects global growth of 3.2% in 2024, up by a modest 0.1 percentage point from its earlier January forecast, and in line with the growth projection for 2023. The IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said the findings suggest the global economy is heading for a "soft landing," following a string of economic crises, and that the risks to the outlook were now broadly balanced. "Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with steady growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly as it rose," he said in a blog post. But dimmer prospects in China and other large emerging market economies could weigh on global trade partners, the report said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, U.S Locations: Nanjing, China

☆ IMF's Gourinchas: See Fed cutting three times in 2024
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailIMF's Gourinchas: See Fed cutting three times in 2024Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, economic counsellor and director of the Research Department at the IMF, weighs in on the fund's global outlook on growth and inflation, and why economies are beginning to see such divergence.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: Research Department, IMF

☆ US economy: IMF raises growth forecast and urges caution on rate cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-04-16 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

The IMF upgraded Tuesday its forecast for US economic growth to 2.7% this year — 0.6 percentage points higher than it predicted as recently as January. The Washington-based IMF expects the 20 countries that use the euro to grow just 0.8% this year, a downgrade of 0.1 percentage points from its January forecast. The global economy, meanwhile, is seen expanding by 3.2%, 0.1 percentage points more than predicted in January. China’s economy, the second-largest in the world, is forecast to grow 4.6%, while India is expected to notch growth of 6.8%. In contrast to the United States, “there is little evidence of overheating” in the euro area, according to Gourinchas.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ”, Gourinchas, it’s, …, ” Gourinchas, “ Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, UBS, European Central Bank, Reuters Locations: United States, Washington, China’s, India, Europe, China

Global inflation is expected to fall to 5.8% in 2024 and to 4.4% in 2025. “The global economy begins the final descent toward a soft landing, with inflation declining steadily and growth holding up. That is not to say the global economy is without challenges. It also raises concerns about a revival of global inflation pressures as importers face surging shipping costs,” said Lydia Boussour, senior economist at EY-Parthenon. “For now, we don’t expect the situation in the Red Sea to substantially alter the outlook for global inflation and global monetary policy this year,” she added.

Persons: ” Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, ”, Lydia Boussour, Gourinchas, ” Gourinchas, Eric LeCompte, LeCompte Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, . News, USA Locations: U.S, China, –, Ukraine, Iranian, Suez, EY, India, Russia, East, Central Asia, Saudi Arabia, “, Brazil

☆ Battle against inflation is being won, IMF chief economist says
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: 1 min

Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailBattle against inflation is being won, IMF chief economist saysPierre-Olivier Gourinchas, chief economist at the International Monetary Fund, discusses the group's upgrade to its global growth forecast.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas Organizations: IMF, International Monetary Fund

Worldwide, the IMF thinks inflation will ease from 6.8% in 2023 to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. The IMF expects the 20 countries that share the euro currency to collectively grow a meager 0.9% this year. The IMF also modestly downgraded the outlook for the Japanese economy, to 0.9%, a drop from 1.9% growth in 2023. The IMF expects oil prices, which plunged 16% in 2023, to fall a further 2.3% this year and 4.8% in 2025. The IMF expects world trade to grow just 3.3% this year and 3.6% in 2025, below the historical average of 4.9%.

Persons: ’ Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, ’ Gourinchas, Joe Biden’s Organizations: WASHINGTON, Monetary Fund, Federal Reserve, IMF, Trade Organization Locations: United States, Yemen, Red, Asia, Europe, Suez, Africa, U.S, Brazil, India, Southeast Asia, Russia, Ukraine, Russian, China

☆ IMF upgrades global growth forecast, citing U.S. resilience and policy support in China
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +1 min

Buildings in Pudong's Lujiazui Financial District in Shanghai, China, on Monday, Jan. 29, 2024. The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday nudged its global growth forecast higher, citing the unexpected strength of the U.S. economy and fiscal support measures in China. It now sees global growth in 2024 at 3.1%, up 0.2 percentage points from its prior October projection, followed by 3.2% expansion in 2025. It forecasts growth this year of 2.1% in the U.S., 0.9% in both the euro zone and Japan, and 0.6% in the United Kingdom. "What we've seen is a very resilient global economy in the second half of last year, and that's going to carry over into 2024," the IMF's chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, told CNBC's Karen Tso on Tuesday.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Karen Tso Organizations: Monetary Fund, IMF Locations: Lujiazui, Shanghai, China, U.S, Brazil, India, Russia, Japan, United Kingdom

☆ IMF warns British government against more tax cuts
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Jenni Reid | ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +2 min

LONDON — The U.K. government should not introduce further tax cuts this year, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday, as its chief economist argued the national budget needed the money for public services and growth-friendly investments. "In that context, we would advise against further discretionary tax cuts, as envisioned or discussed now," he said. An IMF spokesperson separately said the U.K. had higher spending needs across public services and investments than were currently reflected in the government's budget plans. Hunt announced several tax cuts in his fall budget, and made several suggestions he wants to introduce more in the spring. The IMF on Tuesday forecast 0.6% growth for the U.K. economy this year, up slightly from an estimated 0.5% figure for 2023.

Persons: Jeremy Hunt, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Hunt Organizations: British, LONDON, International Monetary Fund, National Health Service, IMF, Conservative, Conservatives, Labour

☆ The global economy is expanding, but the Red Sea crisis could spell trouble, says IMF
▼ + stars: | 2024-01-30 | by ( Anna Cooban | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +4 min

London CNN —The outlook for the global economy is brightening, the International Monetary Fund said Tuesday as it upgraded its growth forecast for 2024. It expects global growth in gross domestic product — a key measure of economic activity — to pick up slightly to 3.2% next year. Despite the IMF’s upgrades, its projections for global growth for 2024 and 2025 are below the annual average of 3.8% clocked up over the first two decades of this century. The longer and costlier journeys have raised fears of a renewed rise in global inflation. An escalation in the Israel-Hamas war into a wider conflict in the Middle East would threaten global growth, the fund added.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Valerie Plesch Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Federal Reserve, Bloomberg, Getty Images, Hamas Locations: Ukraine, Red, United States, India, Washington , DC, Getty Images Iran, Israel

LONDON (AP) — The International Monetary Fund’s chief economist has advised the U.K. government to avoid further tax cuts amid expectations Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s battered administration will do just that to win over voters in an election year. “In that context, we would advise against further discretionary tax cuts as envisioned and discussed now,” Gourinchas said. Hunt is focusing on longer-term projections, noting that the IMF expects growth to strengthen over the next few years. “It is too early to know whether further reductions in tax will be affordable in the budget, but we continue to believe that smart tax reductions can make a big difference in boosting growth,” he said. Concerns about responsible fiscal policies are especially sensitive for Sunak and Hunt as they came to power after their predecessors were widely criticized for announcing millions of pounds in tax cuts without saying how they would be paid for.

Persons: Rishi Sunak’s, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Jeremy Hunt, Jan, Gourinchas, “, ” Gourinchas, Hunt, ” Organizations: Monetary Fund’s, National Health Service, IMF, Treasury, Conservative Party Locations: Britain

☆ France will struggle to meet deficit target, says IMF chief economist
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-21 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

PARIS, Oct 21 (Reuters) - France will struggle to bring down its budget deficit to 2.7% by 2027 without "a little more effort," the chief economist at the International Monetary Fund said on Saturday. Reforms that the government has put in place such as on pensions and unemployment "will bear fruit and help (...) with the budgetary situation in France, but it needs a bit more unfortunately," Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas told France Inter. In its 2024 budget, the French government is aiming to reduce debt and to make 16 billion euros in savings. On Wednesday, the government pushed revenue legislation in the 2024 budget bill through the lower house of parliament using special constitutional powers to bypass a lawmakers' vote, after failing to gain enough support. The spending side of the budget bill, which is to be examined by lawmakers starting next week, includes plans for 16 billion euros in savings, with 10 billion coming from the end of gas and power price caps.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Bruno Le Maire, Layli Organizations: International Monetary Fund, France Inter, Moody's Investment, Thomson Locations: France

☆ Key takeaways from the IMF/World Bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +5 min

Global inflation is seen dropping from 6.9% this year to a still-high 5.8% next. Italian central bank governor Ignazio Visco said there was an impression markets were "reevaluating the term premium" as investors become more nervous about holding longer term debt. One debt restructuring deal emerged: Zambia finally agreed a debt rework memorandum of understanding with creditors including China and France. Sri Lanka said on Thursday it reached an agreement with the Export-Import Bank of China covering about $4.2 billion of debt, while talks with other official creditors are stalling. There was much talk ahead of Marrakech on revamping the IMF and World Bank to better reflect the emergence of economies like China and Brazil.

Persons: Ajay Banga, Mercy Tembon, Finance Serhiy Marchenko, Ceda Ogada, Kristalina Georgieva, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Ignazio Visco, Joyce Chang, Vitor Gaspar, Mehmet Simsek, Murat Ulgen, Kate Donald, Ahmed El Jechtimi, Andrea Shalal, David Lawder, Leika Kihara, Elisa Martinuzzi, Rachel Savage, Jorgelina, Rosario, Balazs Koranyi, Mark John, Christina Fincher Organizations: Bank, Finance, International Monetary Fund, Emerging, Research, HSBC, Reuters, Export, Import Bank of, World Bank, Oxfam International's Washington DC Office, Thomson Locations: Ukraine, MARRAKECH, Morocco, Moroccan, Marrakech, Israel, Central, United States, China, Italy, Italian, Turkey, Kenya, Zambia, France, Sri Lanka, Import Bank of China, Brazil, U.S

☆ Key takeaways from the IMF-World Bank meetings
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-14 | by ( ) www.cnbc.com time to read: +4 min

U.S. Secretary of Treasury Janet Yellen arrives for a bilateral meeting on the third day of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank annual meeting, in Marrakech, Morocco, October 11, 2023. Susana Vera | ReutersOvershadowed by fresh Middle East violence and hosted by a country still recovering from an earthquake, the week-long annual meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank wrapped up on Saturday. Global inflation is seen dropping from 6.9% this year to a still-high 5.8% next. Italian central bank governor Ignazio Visco said there was an impression markets were "reevaluating the term premium" as investors become more nervous about holding longer-term debt. One debt restructuring deal emerged: Zambia finally agreed a debt rework memorandum of understanding with creditors including China and France.

Persons: Janet Yellen, Susana Vera, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Italy —, Ignazio Visco, Joyce Chang, Vitor Gaspar, Mehmet Simsek, Murat Ulgen Organizations: International Monetary Fund, Bank, Reuters, Emerging, Research, HSBC, Export, Import Bank of Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Moroccan, Israel, Central, United States, China, Italy, Italian, Turkey, Kenya, Zambia, France, Sri Lanka, Import Bank of China

☆ IMF's chief economist urges Italy to toughen budget plans -media
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-12 | by ( ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

REUTERS/Susana Vera/File photo Acquire Licensing RightsROME, Oct 12 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund wants Italy to make its 2024 budget framework more stringent, as tax cut plans made the Fund "a bit worried", its chief economist, Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, said in a newspaper interview on Thursday. Gourinchas told the Corriere della Sera daily that Italy's structural deficit, net of interest spending, was not seen as falling fast enough. The IMF was "a bit worried" by planned tax cuts that "don't necessarily seem to go in the right direction", he added. It would be "desirable" if Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni's government revised its fiscal plans to make them more stringent before they are approved by parliament, he said. Over the next month Italy's budget faces scrutiny from credit ratings agencies, with S&P Global, DBRS, Fitch and Moody's all reviewing their assessment of the euro zone's third largest economy.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Susana Vera, Gourinchas, Giorgia, DBRS, Fitch, Moody's, Gavin Jones, Clarence Fernandez Organizations: Research Department IMF, Reuters, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, REUTERS, Rights, Monetary Fund, della Sera, IMF, P, Thomson Locations: Marrakech, Morocco, Italy, Rome

Israeli assets and the shekel remain under pressure and oil and gold prices are marginally higher than last week. World Markets Impact From MidEast Attacks WanesBlackRock chart on its Geopolitical Risk IndicatorNOWHERE TO RUN TO... Last updated shortly before the weekend events in Israel, BlackRock's Geopolitical Risk Indicator - which attempts to capture market attention to political risks - had indeed crept up to six month highs. Releasing its World Economic Outlook on Tuesday, the International Monetary Fund warned that more volatile commodity prices were a possible reflection of both greater climate and geopolitical risk. And yet hand wringing about geopolitical risk in different corners of the globe can also deflect from rising political risks in core economies - not the least in the United States.

Persons: Brendan McDermid, Vincent Mortier, Anna Rosenberg, Kristina Hooper reckons, Hooper, that's, It's, Amundi's Rosenberg, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, Josie Kao Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, REUTERS, West Bank, International Monetary Fund, IMF, Treasury, Reuters, Thomson Locations: New York City, U.S, Israel, Gaza, Iran, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Taiwan, Ukraine

If the Fed's holdings of long-dated securities were shrinking like other parts of the curve, or even at all, more of these bonds would be available to the wider market. Wang recognizes that if the Fed held fewer longer-dated securities these yields might be even higher, but also points out that the Fed's holdings are largely determined by what Treasury issues. All told, the Fed's 'QT 2' is almost twice the pace of QT 1. Reuters Image Acquire Licensing RightsSince the Fed started QT 2, its total holdings of Treasury bills and bonds have fallen to $4.93 trillion from $5.77 trillion. The average profile of Fed-held Treasury debt is longer than total outstanding Treasury debt, and getting longer.

Persons: Sukree, Benson Durham, Piper Sandler, Joseph Wang, Wang, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Neel Kashkari, Jamie McGeever, Andrea Ricci Organizations: Rights, Fed, Treasury, Reuters, Monetary, Minneapolis, Thomson Locations: Kasikornbank, Bangkok, Rights ORLANDO , Florida, Durham

☆ Janet Yellen sees limited economic impact from war in Israel
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-11 | by ( Hanna Ziady | ) edition.cnn.com time to read: +3 min

London CNN —The war between Israel and Hamas is unlikely to have a significant impact on the global economy, US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen said Wednesday. Global oil prices had surged earlier in the week on fears that the war could cause wider instability in the oil-producing Middle East. But Yellen said Wednesday that the United States had not “in any way” relaxed sanctions on oil exports from Iran. But it cautioned in its latest World Economic Outlook report — finalized before the conflict erupted — that economic growth remained weak and patchy. The IMF shaved its forecast for global growth in 2024 by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9%.

Persons: Janet Yellen, I’m, ”, Yellen, Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, —, — Robert North Organizations: London CNN, International Monetary Fund, Bank, Stock, Global, Chevron, IMF Locations: Israel, Morocco, Iran, China, Washington, United States, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Egypt, Jordan, Europe

☆ IMF says US bond sell-off may reflect extra quantities on market
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +1 min

IMF chief economist Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the selloff of U.S. bonds could reflect a mismatch in supply, rather than serious concerns about further hikes in interest rates or heightened concerns about long-term risks. "We're not seeing a huge decline in risk appetite in equity markets and credit markets, so it's a little bit odd," he said. "If you're looking at the U.S. Treasury market, maybe there's a question about who the buyers might be in the context where the government is also issuing quite a bit of that stuff." "In good times, that's a time to maybe reduce the deficit so that you can expand them when times are bad," he said. "The markets are asked to absorb a lot of debt out there ... maybe there is a little bit less appetite for that.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, that's, Andrea Shalal, Marguerita Choy Organizations: Monetary Fund, selloff, World Bank, U.S . Treasury Locations: MARRAKECH, Morocco, U.S, Marrakech

☆ IMF says global economy 'limping along,' cuts growth forecast for China, euro area
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +6 min

サマリー Global growth forecast unchanged at 3.0% in 2023Inflation dropping but 'not quite there yet'-IMF chief economistIMF raises U.S. forecast, cuts outlook for China, euro areaMARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its growth forecasts for China and the euro area and said overall global growth remained low and uneven despite what it called the "remarkable strength" of the U.S. economy. The IMF left its forecast for global real GDP growth in 2023 unchanged at 3.0% in its latest World Economic Outlook (WEO), but cut its 2024 forecast by 0.1 percentage point to 2.9% from its July forecast. "The global economy is showing resilience. "We see a global economy that is limping along and it's not quite sprinting yet." It left Japan's 2024 growth outlook unchanged at 1.0%.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, It's, it's, Andrea Shalal, Andrea Ricci Organizations: IMF, Monetary Fund, Economic, International Monetary Fund, World Bank, Reuters, Labor, U.S, autoworkers Locations: China, MARRAKECH, Morocco, U.S, Ukraine, Israel, Marrakech, United States, Japan

☆ IMF says global economy 'limping along', cuts growth forecast for China, euro zone
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( Andrea Shalal | ) www.reuters.com time to read: +7 min

China Daily via REUTERS Acquire Licensing RightsSummary Global growth forecast unchanged at 3.0% in 2023Inflation dropping but 'not quite there yet'-IMF chief economistIMF raises U.S. forecast, cuts outlook for China, euro areaMARRAKECH, Morocco, Oct 10 (Reuters) - The International Monetary Fund on Tuesday cut its growth forecasts for China and the euro zone and said overall global growth remained low and uneven despite what it called the "remarkable strength" of the U.S. economy. In its latest World Economic Outlook, the IMF left its forecast for global real GDP growth in 2023 unchanged at 3.0% but cut its 2024 forecast to 2.9% from its July forecast of 3.0%. Even in 2028, the IMF is projecting global growth of just 3.1%. You put all these things together and you have a slowdown in medium-term growth," Gourinchas told Reuters. If the real estate crisis deepened, China's growth could be lowered by as much as 1.6% percentage point, which in turn would knock 0.6 percentage points off global growth, Gourinchas said.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas, It's, it's, Andrea Shalal, Andrea Ricci, Catherine Evans Organizations: REUTERS Acquire, IMF, Monetary Fund, World Bank, Reuters, Research, Labor, U.S, autoworkers, Thomson Locations: Jinhua, Zhejiang province, China, MARRAKECH, Morocco, U.S, COVID, Ukraine, Israel, Marrakech, United States, Japan

☆ IMF Says It's Too Soon to Assess Economic Impact
▼ + stars: | 2023-10-10 | by ( ) www.wsj.com time to read: 1 min

The top economist at the International Monetary Fund said it is too soon to tell whether the war between Israel and Hamas will have broad economic consequences. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas said the conflict risks creating an energy-supply shock, which could raise oil prices, feed inflation and reduce growth. IMF research shows a 10% increase in oil prices reduces global economic growth by 0.15 percentage point. While oil prices have jumped since the fighting started, Gourinchas said the increases may not last. I think it's too early to really assess what the impact might be," he said, at the IMF's annual meetings in Marrakesh, Morocco.

Persons: Pierre, Olivier Gourinchas, Gourinchas Organizations: International Monetary Fund Locations: Israel, Marrakesh, Morocco

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